by Marie-Paule Odini, Chief Technologist, Communications and Media Solutions, HP.
Last week I got the chance to participate in a panel for the Electronic Business Group in Paris on "What's Hot" in our business. Interesting subject especially when you have different perspective with an analyst (ComScore), a NEP (ALU), an operator (Orange), a chipset vendor (QualComm), a Korean phone vendor (LG) and an IT vendor (HP)... But we all came to the conclusion that some subjects were definitely top of the list:
- Smartphone, OS & Appstore came first: Smartphones already represent over 17% of the phones used by the 4.5B mobile users. 28% in US and Europe. With strong prognostic that 'open' Android, with 300,000 new activations per day will win over the innovative but closed Apple iOS, and high expectations on what HP will come up with WebOS across its portfolio.
- LTE, Fiber and more broadband: Telia Sonera was first in 2010, followed by many others - including Verizon, who recently rolled out LTE in a massive way in the US with 5-12Mb/s download (http://network4g.verizonwireless.com/#/whatis4g). But not yet 4G, as the ITU-R likes to explain, only LTE-advanced and wireless-MAN advanced can qualify as 4G (100sMb/s).
- Data Traffic Growth and Net Neutrality: Mobile Data traffic is doubling on average, every year, AT&T CTO Donovan even said that it will grow 49 times over the next 3 years. While unlimited data plans continue to dominate US offerings, and the FCC wants to enforce Net Neutrality! Who will pay for network expansion? In Europe, Operators have started to use Deep Packet Inspection and offer subscription with limited internet access or bundle with social networks such as Facebook, Twitter or local ones.
- Video, Visual Collaboration: Video traffic is growing fast with YouTube, streaming and enterprise video conferencing. With LTE, smartphone and better quality, this trend will continue with expectations that video will reach 1/3 of data traffic. Mobility, energy and cost savings are big factors and teleworking is increasing: 40% of US workers are expected to work from home by 2015.
- Cloud will continue to drive investment towards internet providers, telecom operators, application providers and IT vendors and switch Capex model to Opex and infrastructure, Software, and Communication as a Service.
- Connected devices: Smart Grid & smart meters, connected cars, telehealth, home energy. Two out of three SIM cards will be for machines in 2011. Many country regulations will drive this business, but also value added services. Operators like AT&T, Orange and others have dedicated M2M business units and expand their offerings much beyond SIM Cards. In 2017, 7 trillion connected objects will be serving 7 billion people ! (source: wma).
- Social media is changing the way we communicate with friends and in the business. Many countries have their own social networks but Facebook is now the international reference with over 500M users. With new features coming such as mail, maybe voice and increasing advertising revenues, some people even expect Facebook to become bigger than... Google!
- Consumer Electronics is the big winner of the new generation. People spend more on gadgets these days than on anything else. Tablets, HD and Connected TV, Pico Projectors, Blu-Ray Set Top Box etc. should be the headlines of upcoming CES in January in Las Vegas.
- And other subjects... NFC-Contactless payment, P2P-CDN, voice recognition, Subscriber Data Mgt, IPv6 etc.... A very dynamic industry and more fun to come for 2011!!