As we end 2009, I’m throwing out my predictions for the year ahead as I have for the past 3 years. As in the past, I guarantee nothing except another exciting year filled with challenges and opportunities.
1. SEO Will Rule – now that search is becoming better understood by businesses (small and large), paid search will still have a significant presence, but I anticipate companies will look to maximize their web sites, tagging strategies, and governance over search terms in order to drive more free traffic to their sites. In addition, most agencies are starting to understand SEO as an important component of the overall media strategy. And if they don’t have the SEO talent in-house they are bringing in partners who can provide guidance in the search space.
2. Media Spending Will Stay Tight Despite the Predictions – this is probably controversial as I continue to hear all sort of “magical media wizards” saw FY10 will be a rebound year, with media revenue increasing off the FY09 lows. And, yes, we might see some bump, but this past year has been a year in which marketers had to hone their skills and get smart about doing things cheap, easy and quick. They focused more attention on getting close to the customer, using communities and more “guerrilla” efforts which frankly worked despite the challenging economy. And albeit, the economy might come back like a lion in the Americas, I think most marketers will diversify their portfolio and continue to be conservative in budget planning for FY10.
3. This Will Actually Be a Watershed Year for Mobile – I believe I’ve been predicting the “year of mobile” for now the 3rd year. Well, what the heck, I’ve got to be right sometime! But I do believe there have been some fundamental shifts in mobile this past year. First, apps have been popular and almost addictive. Second, 3G and 4G seem to be standard, making data plans cheap. Third, the consumer is actually using the mobile device as a utility in shopping, obtaining information and interacting via texting, social sites, etc. Asia is far ahead of the Americas, but let’s be clear the regional differences between mobile usage are quite different, so don’t think a “one size fits all” standard exists – it doesn’t. And a mobile strategy isn’t just an app; it’s about having content, a unique and engaging mobi site and providing benefit back to the consumer.
4. Social Marketing/Communities Will Gain Traction and Investment – I keep hearing people say social marketing is a fad. Well if it’s a fad, it sure is a big one! People love to connect, share and gain insights from others. How many of you review the ratings on Amazon.com before purchasing a product? How many of you go to a company’s community site to get a question answered or to ask a “community” of individuals a question? This is becoming the norm…we’ve moved from asking our family, trusted friends/advisors to trusting the opinions of strangers. That is a significant shift and has huge customer benefit – by answering the question, solving the issue and providing insights they didn’t have.
5. The Asian Tiger Will Roar – for multinational companies China and the other countries in Asia will drive significant market expansion. That will shift the investment platform as it relates to media, resources, programs, etc. to Asia vs. the Americas or Europe. Keeping a close eye on media costs in Asia and the expansion of new social and mobile efforts will be critical. We’re not talking about millions of consumers….we’re talking b-b-b-b-billions of consumers.
6. Integration Between Platforms Will Be Critical – everyone keeps talking about doing twitter, putting up a site on Facebook, LinkedIn, etc. But as devices become more sophisticated, the end consumer is going to want to have these platforms tied up in a manner that makes their life easier and allows them to keep track of information, people, updates, opportunity, etc. In addition, tying those platforms back to your website will be important in order to keep customers on your site and integrated into your businesses digital “ecosystem.”
7. Print and Broadcast Will Continue to Look for Extra Revenue Streams to Offsite Continuing Decline in Ad Revenue – I still don’t see a “print” comeback. Seriously, I know this is sobering news, but I don’t see ad revenue dramatically “shifting” back to print. Not when CPM’s are in the $20 range for print and in the $5 range for digital. Certainly some print properties have done a great job building up their digital presence and that has certainly helped revenue streams, but the overall revenue is down no matter how much digital you book… the legacy costs of printing, etc. must be taken into consideration. So I look for print properties to look for more ingenious methods of distribution to lower costs (digital or print at home), as well as possible revenue generation share models. Why not? Isn’t that what advertising is suppose to do – drive revenue?
8. Television “Ad Serving” Will Gain Traction at End of FY10 – you’ve probably heard of Canoe… if not you better get familiar with it. If the ability to better target customers through more impactful ad targeting is available, advertisers will certainly jump at the opportunity to gain efficiencies while dead zero targeting the marketplace. But it will take some time for marketers and agencies to really understand the new realities this type of targeting provides as well as making adjustments to creative delivery and media schedules. I see that movement starting by end of 2010 not before.
9. Companies Will Move to Marketing Ecosystem Management from Campaign Management – if the past couple of years has taught marketers anything it is that you have to manage multiple channels, multiple media types, multiple campaigns, engage your sales force, produce management, Marcom, agencies, PR, social, search, etc. etc. And with budgets being constrained, I think marketers are looking at how do I manage my entire “ecosystem” – from the point a customer finds a product/service, thru to the analysis on whether to purchase, to the actual purchase experience, to customer support and sharing with other customers their experience and feelings about the brand/purchase. This is a massive shift from the traditional… run a campaign, develop the creative for the next one, run that campaign, etc. etc.
10. Businesses/Products That Exceed Customer Expectations Will Win – and Win Big… with the never ending news cycle, social media, twitter, mobile devices, YouTube, text messaging, etc. excellence in all parts of the marketing chain, supply and support chain, and total customer experience will be the defining point for businesses. If you don’t take it seriously, the consumer will bite and bite you hard. Caution… the bar isn’t going to go down… but will always be going up, so you and every aspect of your organization/company must always be in a state of improvement otherwise you’ll quickly find yourself on the bad side of the customer.
Here is to a great 2010 for all of you. I hope we all find 2010 a challenging year, as those are the times when we grow the most, get smart, focus on the right things and truly explore the boundaries of our experience.
Scott
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