The Next Big Thing
Posts about next generation technologies and their effect on business.

A Review of the Predictions for 2008

For the last few years I've been grading my predications at the end of the year (2006, 2007), so it seems like time to look at those for 2008. My predictions for 2009 will be out in a few weeks.

The predictions for 2008 were:

  1. Mobile Redefinition - Although mobile definitely has undergone some change during 2008, with spectrum reallocation, spectrum auctions and WiMax moving forward, it wasn't really redefined in any disruptive fashion, yet. B
  2. Unified communications is definitely still going on, but was not the focus of any major investments of the IT organizations I interact with, and I only know of a few who pushed it into projects in 2008. D
  3. Broad acceptance of SaaS - SaaS has definitely turned into a fad that everyone has been pushing into their products. Numerous organizations are using SaaS daily. A
  4. Delivery of new user interfaces - With multi-touch coming in Windows 7 and already on the IPOD, some PCs and MS Surface, as well as gesture interfaces being added to various devices, there has definitely been work on user interface in 2008. There was even a commercially available direct brain interface. Even though there was progress in 2008, to say that it was delivered widely (especially in the enterprise space) would be an overstatement. B
  5. Personal area networks as still catching on, but it wasn't a big focus in 2008 (at least in the circle of folks with which I regularly communicate). D
  6. Security did not really move beyond problem prevention into actual information assurance, assisting organizations and teams in response to events. F
  7. Automation in the assembly of software and infrastructure had some advances in 2008, with Microsoft announcing Oslo. There was also some advancement in the workflow space, facilitating the improvement of organizational workflow. B

On the corporate front, everyone is continuing to talk about more virtualization and cores... and starting to think about cloud. We're also seeing Green IT start to become something talked about in the front office and not just in the back. We've barely seen the tip of that iceberg. This was a prediction holdover from 2006 and 2007.

Overall a good set of predictions, since I was trying to stretch the envelope, but not the kind of report card I'd want my kids to bring home. I'm not sure I'll be any more cautious for 2009, although with the financial crisis, it will be a very lean and focused year for deploying new technologies.

Anonymous | ‎12-18-2008 07:16 AM

Don't be too hard on yourself, the kids should know the answers, we are still searching.

'Security did not really move ' always a problem when we can't impress on businesses of the value of their data. And how much bad news do we want anyway? Having secure data is always seen as a cost rather than the benefit it really is.

'also seeing Green IT start to become something talked about ' - I think that this will be a major force for next year, due to the cost-savings which can be achieved, without compromising the business. It's a shame that a lot of the elements in the 'Business Computer Architecture' I proposed 10 years ago, are only just seeing the light of day, with the corresponding energy savings.

(A rundown of the BCA can be found in the archive section of

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