For the last few years I've been grading my predications at the end of the year (2006, 2007, 2008), so it seems like time to look at those for 2009. My predictions for 2010 will be out in a few weeks. 2009 has been a year for many organizations to look inward and focus on cost cutting instead of value generation. It was clear that was going to be the case, so my predictions were much more conservative than in the past.
Hopefully, 2010 will be a year for organizations to focus on why IT exists in the first place.
The predictions for 2009 were:
- SaaS - Software as a service clearly gathered momentum in 2009, but it is still a bit isolated and weak. B
- Cloud - Cloud is at the peak of the hype cycle and I firmly believe there are some disasters on the horizon that will cause it to sink in the valley of disillusionment. This has been a good year for cloud. A
- Virtualization - Virtualization has come out of its valley and is being adopted and used by even the most mainstream organizations. A
- Green - The petal has fallen off the flower a bit this year for Green, since it requires a longer term view There is still lots of talk but significantly less action in a year of cost cutting. I do believe that 2010 will see a refocusing on Green, since in a recent IDC global survey, senior information and communications technology and executives said that green IT initiatives are at the top of their lists. B
- Open Source and vendor consolidation - Vendor consolidation has happened in the services space to a significant extent in 2009 and of course we can't forget Sun and Oracle. There is quite a bit of momentum continuing for Open Source, but at least from my perspective. It comes up in conversation quite a bit less than it did last year. That may be because it is mainstream though. I don't believe that Open Source has forced the degree of consolidation I was expecting though. B
- Social Computing - One of the areas where cloud techniques are definitely being used is in the social computing space. With Google Wave being beta tested and a new version of SharePoint in the wings, collaboration is still advancing strongly. A
- Standards - Standards efforts have moved forward - 802.11n was finally ratified. But it didn't seem to be a big year for standards. Cloud computing and mashup techniques definitely needs them. C
- Analytics - You can't pick up a computer magazine lately without seeing something about the use of analytics to generate deeper insight and business value. A
- Smaller PCs - I think everyone can agree that this is the year that netbooks (miniPCs) came into their own. A
Many of my items were in an IEEE list of what was hot in 2009.
Since most of my grades were very high, it's clear I was very conservative in my predictions for 2009.