Grading my predictions for 2012
I said that 2012 would be a year of disruption with many of the issues and conflicts that I’ve discussed coming to a head. Issues like BYOD and the post PC era have had an effect on the IT market far outside just PCs. The continued slow economy has also taken its toll. On the other hand, many new technologies and investments have come to fruition, even if the market is not quite ready to embrace them.
I’ll grade myself with the following scale again this year:
- A: Big changes during the year that are having wide effect.
- B: Notable progress through the year and isolated areas of significant impact.
- C: Progress with some impact
- D: Little progress or impact – but work still taking place
- F: No progress or the concept abandoned in any commercial sense.
Grade | Prediction | Rational |
D | The demise of one of the large social media players | Twitter, Facebook and Linked-in are as strong as ever. I know of very few people who continue to use Google+, but it is still in use. There have been numerous new entries in the social space like Pinterest, so there is still room for significant innovation. |
C | Revitalization of CASE tools | Although I see tools like this coming on the market, I’d say their impact was marginal. I think it will still happen, but this year has not been the turning point. |
A | Analytics and complex even processing | Although we still have much further to go, analytics has been the big buzzword of 2012. |
B | Use of more GPU and low power processors in computing platforms | We have definitely seen more activity in this space, and will likely see more in 2013. |
A | Cloud computing will enter a new level of sophistication | The growth of standards and some of the lessons learned through failures in 2012 are making this happen. |
C | 2012 the year of Windows 8 | Windows 8 has not taken off like a house afire, but it is definitely forcing organizations to rethink their interface and future in the windows environment. You can blame it on the end of the PC era or the poor economy or the fact that many of the biggest improvements from an enterprise perspective are just not all that noticeable at first glance. I think it is universally viewed that the removal of the “Start” button was a bridge too far for most of the users. |
D | The adoption of enterprise app stores | This has also not taken place as rapidly as I’d thought. There are efforts underway and the value is well understood, but it has not yet reached a tipping point. |
Based on these scores, my predictions were not as conservative as in recent years. As I finished up the post last year, since I’ll have my predictions for 2013 before the end of the month.
“Having said all that, it is a great time to be in IT. Most of our concerns are currently driven by an overabundance of capabilities that most organizations have not tapped into effectively. Those who can have the vision will be in for quite a ride this year as they look to do more with more.”
