The Next Big Thing
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Grading the predictions for 2010

crystalball.gifFor the last few years I've been grading my predications at the end of the year (2006, 2007, 2008, 2009), so it has come time to look at those for 2010. 2010 has been a transition year, with many organizations coming out of the cost cutting perspective of the recession and looking ahead for what they need in the future. So far this recovery has been relatively jobless (at least in the US) and Information Technology has actually had quite a bit to do with this, either through the automation it enabled or the analysts of options provided.

 

When I was doing my predictions for 2010, I thought that 2009 was a bit too conservative so I went out on a limb a bit more. Since 2010 was the start of a new decade, with a whole new wave of computing approaches only just starting to be understood.

 

I’ll grade myself with the following scale:

  • A: Big changes during the year that are having wide effect.
  • B: Notable progress through the year and isolated areas of significant impact.
  • C: Progress with some impact
  • D: Little progress or impact – but work still taking place
  • F: No progress or the concept abandoned in any commercial sense.

The areas that I thought would be notable in 2010:

 

  • Augmented reality – In the gaming space we’ve seen quite a bit of new hardware from Sony, Microsoft. In the mobile devices there was also quite a number of new applications taking advantage of the mobile sensing capabilities. Although there is some demonstration taking place in business its impact has been isolated.  B
  • Social computing – This was a holdover from previous years and is continuing to expand and effect more organizations. A
  • 3D techniques & standards – This was definitely one of the focal points for the consumer electronics show. More devices and announcements are taking place every day (HP has a 3D laptop). I have not seen the growth in 3D business applications I expected though. C
  • Highly parallel non-SQL techniques – These have definitely been incorporated into more business applications this year and are still being researched and advancing in significant ways. Their impact has been a bit isolated though. B
  • Data de-duplication – HP released some products in this space and HP labs continues to do research. Cloud techniques are also placing pressures on more efforts by organizations in this space. B
  • Commercial application of Web 3.0 techniques (that will use cloud techniques) - The cloud space has continue its bifurcation into public cloud for SMB and private cloud for the enterprise clients as expected. There is definitely been a great deal of effort and progress made in this space and more organizations are using or investigating a more flexible approach than ever before. A
  • The focus will move from Green IT to "IT for Green" – Although this is definitely discussed on a regular basis I do not believe it has become central to the discussion within more IT organizations. B
  • Security concerns – Although security is a critical issue to IT, the shift I thought was going to take place during the year in how organizations approach security didn’t happen. The incidents continue to mount, but the approach remains relatively unchanged for most of the industry. D
  • USB 3.0 and solid state disks – Not much happened in this space. Sure SSD is in more devices and they are getting larger but that expected. Looks like we’ll have to wait another year for systems that can use USB 3,0. D
  • Use of Robots – There was significant progress in this space during the year. New techniques and applications come to market every day but its impact on most industries is limited. B

So with 2 As, 5 Bs, 1 C and 2 Ds it’s not exactly the report card my Mom would want me to bring home, but at least I wasn’t too conservative this year.

 

My predictions for 2011 will be out before the end of the year. I then usually create a presentation around the predictions that I give to teams and clients...

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