The Next Big Thing

Sometimes after technology becomes so abundant, we have trouble imaging what it was like before. Back on Nov. 10th 1951, the first coast-to-coast direct dialed call took place.

“Mayor M. Leslie Downing of Englewood, N.J., picked up a telephone and dialed 10 digits. Eighteen seconds later, he reached Mayor Frank Osborne in Alameda, Calif.”

It took 18 seconds to place the call, a great improvement over the first transcontinental telephone call 36 years earlier, when it took five operators 23 minutes to set up a call from San Francisco to New York.

This first coast to coast direct dial call introduced the public to the concept of area codes.

“Ninety area codes in 1951 grew to 135 in 1991. In recent years, cellular phones, fax machines, modems, and local service competition ignited explosive area-code growth. The last code available in the original scheme - 610 - entered service in Pennsylvania in 1994. Codes with second digits other than 0 or 1 came into use. Today, there are 251 area codes...and counting!”

Today we don’t even think about how long it will take or what’s involved in making a phone call. It’s just a technology we take for granted. Just think what we'll take for granted 60 years from today.

I was in a discussion with some folks about technical trends intersecting with business trends and what we should be looking for. One of them pointed to the HP Cooltown video that the labs organization produced back in 2001:

I find it interesting how much of that video is commonplace or is close to existing today.

Now to see what today's version of that video would look like.

Wired just released an updated article about the state of 3D printing. This is one of those topics that I believe will have a long term significant effect beyond just the DIY movement. Although one of the items they did talk about was Microsoft’s .NET Gadgeteer that is focused on creating small modules that the DIY folks can use. That reminded me of the Sun SPOT project that Sun Microsystems research had a while back to enable embedding computers in devices.

I was talking with someone the other day on the intersection of the 3D printing efforts and robotics and the interesting possibilities that could come from it.

Whether it’s a fire or flood, an earthquake or hurricane, being prepared and staying informed are the keys to getting through an emergency situation safely. With that in mind there is an upcoming nationwide test of the U.S. Emergency Alert System (EAS). 

Be prepared…

On Wednesday, November 9 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), will conduct a nationwide test of the Emergency Alert System (EAS).

All digital, cable and satellite television and broadcast radio services across the country will be simultaneously interrupted for approximately 30 seconds, after which regular programming will resume.

Stay informed…

This is the first national-level test of the EAS that has ever been conducted and will be similar to the local emergency tests, issued by the National Weather Service and state/local officials, used to send alerts and warnings.

So remember, if you find yourself within earshot of a radio or TV on November 9th, at home or in your car – and hear an emergency message broadcast on every TV and radio channel – it’s just a test.

Visit the FEMA: Nationwide EAS Test website for more information about the test.

Businesses should think of this as a reminder to test their own disaster preparedness.

When thinking about strategic change, it can be useful to think about what is in abundance and what is constrained (it is just simple supply and demand). I came across this thought provoking article titled The Wheel to the Web: 30 Technologies That Changed Everything that made me question what these technologies provide that just wasn’t possible before.

The article covers everything from simple machines to the Internet. At the end it also has some examples of technologies that caused quite a bit of discussion, but never lived up to their potential (does anyone remember CueCat?).

When you begin to think strategically (vs. planning strategically), you need to think about a number of things at the same time:

• What timeframe am I worried about? When you’re up to your neck in a problem, the strategic timeframe can be measured in minutes.
• What are the scenarios you are trying to address and what is the likelihood that they will need to be addressed? Examples: Aging Demographic vs. Youth Culture, Alternative Fuels vs. Peak Oil Production.
• What are the cultural issues that need to be overcome? An example of this is the uncanny valley.

TeleGeography’s Submarine cable map illustrates active and planned cable systems and their landing stations.

Selecting a cable route on the map provides access to data about the cable, including the cable’s name, ready-for-service (RFS) date, cable length, owners, landing points and even a website for more information about that particular cable run. Selecting a landing point provides a list of all undersea cables landing at that location.

This is all part of the technology enabling the  abundance of networking capability that we depend upon.