The Next Big Thing
Posts about next generation technologies and their effect on business.

Grading my predictions for 2013

grading predictions.pngAt the end of every year that I’ve been making annual predictions, I grade my predications made in the previous December

(200620072008200920102011, 2012). It's time to look at 2013. 2013 has been the start of a turnaround for HP. We’re not out of it all yet, but we’re definitely making progress. In a way, the same thing could be said about the economy and the industry as a whole.

 

I said that 2013 would be a year of expectation -- changing the very foundation of how IT is judged. HP’s efforts around the new style of IT attests to that and many of the trends I talked about in 2012 (and earlier) began to generate business value.

 

I’ll grade myself with the following scale again this year:

A: Big changes during the year that are having wide effect.

B: Notable progress through the year and isolated areas of significant impact.

C: Progress with some impact

D: Little progress or impact – but work still taking place

F: No progress or the concept abandoned in any commercial sense.

 

Grade

Prediction

Rational

A

Organizations will have a higher expectations of security based on what everyone has experienced and learned. The battle over Internet censorship and control will reach new heights in 2013.

Thanks to the Snowden issue, this one definitely came out big, although in a way none of us may have expected.

C

Software defined networks will make communications as virtualized and flexible as the computing infrastructure. This versatility will become an expectation.

I facilitated a discussion on SDN back in September and throughout our talk it was clear that progress has been made, but we’re still only scratching the surface.

A

IT organizations will expand their definition of “customer” and their analytics to include suppliers, partners, consumers and anything/one that can make a difference

Although Big Data was not new in 2013, it definitely started to penetrate even the most slow to adopt organization’s thinking. There is definitely progress being made, although I still wonder about the bias issue.

B

We can expect to see bigger data and even bigger storage, with copious amounts of information coming from more sensors in more places. Organizations will no longer be satisfied with using only 3-5% of the data available. Beyond there being more data, the information collected will be of a wider variety (including video, sound…) so transforming the information from one format to another and back will be increasingly important.

This is a case of definite progress being made but I am not sure organizations are yet using double digit percentages of the information available to them.

B

The whole concept of ‘In Memory’ computing will be up for a shift in expectations for where and how it is used.

SAP Hana (probably the most notable of the large commercial applications in this space) is now being looked at seriously for a wide range of database applications. It is not too widespread but HP and SAP are definitely making inroads.

D

Widespread acceptance of new and improved NFC capabilities for payment and identity. The Internet of Things (IoT) will become just the Internet. Individuals will be able to add IoT capabilities independent of the original manufacturer, if desired. Although enterprises may still be crawling their way to the IoT, consumers will embrace IoT in 2013.

Although the Internet of Things is real, it has not made the progress I expected it to make in 2013. The consumer space has not really moved all that much more quickly than the Enterprise space. Sure there are devices and applications, but are they really having the impact they should.

D

The availability of different disruptive display technologies in 2013 to shift our thinking about where and when a display is needed (or even possible).

Although there are some new interface approaches and techniques, displays have not really shifted significantly in 2013.

D

One of the other core shifts in expectation will be around simplicity and the use of automation to focus attention and automate more business processes. The concept of human augmentation of automation will be significantly less foreign at the end of 2013 than it is today.

This is another case where there has been some progress, but not nearly as much as I’d hoped. Human augmented automation is about as foreign to strategic planning now as it was in 2012.

C

Enterprises will begin to address the issue that most of the apps in production can’t really unleash the power of the cloud. 2013 should see new tools and techniques to address this potential.

Application portfolio management is definitely part of a move to greater value in IT, but I’d say the adoption is only slightly more than 2012.

C

IT will begin to see ways to virtualize the mobile experience in new, secure and innovative ways.

Once again there has been progress, but it has primarily been incremental in nature. No radically new devices or approaches have come on the scene, although HP has services that understand virtualization in the mobile space, they are just not yet in demand.

B

The skills within the organization will be a constraint on value generation. Gamification, as an example, is a skill that will be recognized and move hand-in-hand with strategic change.

I do believe that gamification and its understanding by organizations shifted significantly in 2013, but that might just be because I kept talking with people about it.

C

Using the contextual information available from big data and the need for attention engineering, individuals and corporations will have greater expectation on how information is delivered to them.

Although to most businesses the expectations on information delivery is changing, I don’t think it has made significant change from the approach used in 2012.

B

There will also be a shift in how products are personalized as 3D printing moves out of limited use and becomes significantly more mainstream with some parts of the world having 3D printing capabilities as a local service. 

2013 was a good year for 3D printing. Most people have heard about it, even if they have not held something that has been through a 3D printing process. Commercial entities have begun to embrace the possibilities.

D

Implementation of IPV6 is going to be a focus in 2013.

Now there are those who are pushing back and saying they may never need to go to IPV6, the workaround are good enough.

D

Realization that automation is the new off-shore, specifically in development

I don’t believe this moved much in 2013. Very few organizations use significant automation techniques in the development space.

 

Based on these scores, my predictions for 2013 were not too conservative. My personal goal is to get close to a C+. If I get too high a grade, I am not trying to stretch my thinking (or yours for that matter) enough.

 

My view is the same as when I finished up my post in 2011:

 

“Having said all that, it is a great time to be in IT. Most of our concerns are currently driven by an overabundance of capabilities that most organizations have not tapped into effectively. Those who can have the vision will be in for quite a ride this year as they look to do more with more.”

 

I should have my predictions for 2014 out by the middle of December.

2013 predictions - a year of expectation

If 2011 was the year of transformation and 2012 was the year of disruption, I believe that 2013 will be a year of expectation – changing expectations in IT. A year when many of these trends I’ve posted about really hit home. I’ll use the links in this post to provide the background context for these predictions.

 

Security is shifting with more threats from more sources and the realization that everyone gets hacked. Organizations will have a higher expectations of security based on what everyone has experienced and learned.

 

The industry has been talking about mobile devices, sensors and using networks to pull data from the edge and so now they’ll look to do something with all this data.

 

The market has talked about having software defined networks to make communications as virtualized and flexible as the computing infrastructure, now this versatility will become an expectation.

 

As organizations inch their way out of this incessant economic downturn, they will need new techniques that give greater insight on performance and satisfaction. This means that IT organizations will need to expand their definition of “customer” to include suppliers, partners, consumers and anything/one that can make a difference. 2013 will be a year where the constraints of the past need to be broken and organizations will be expected to look beyond whatever hinders innovation and the generation of greater value.

 

We can expect to see bigger data and even bigger storage, with copious amounts of information coming from more sensors in more places. Organizations will no longer be satisfied with using only 3-5% of the data available. Beyond being more of it, the information collected will be of a wider variety (including video, sound…) so transforming the information from one format to another and back will be increasingly important. I think more importantly – there will be a greater understanding and expectations of the value of the metadata – who is sending what to whom, when and what is the driving intent. After all, people do not really make decisions based on the data, they make decisions based on the context the data describes. The expertise for those that understand both the information and how it can be applied to the business goals of the day will be in highest demand. The whole concept of ‘In Memory’ computing will be up for a shift in expectations for where and how it is used – although that one might need to wait for 2014.

 

We’ll also see these devices in the field used for more functions – like the wide spread acceptance of new and improved NFC capabilities for payment and identity. The Internet of Things (IoT) will become just the Internet. Individuals will be able to add IoT capabilities independent of the original manufacturer, if desired. Although enterprises may still be crawling their way to the IoT, consumers will embrace IoT in 2013.

 

I also fully expect a couple of different disruptive display technologies in 2013 to shift our thinking about where and when a display is needed (or even possible).

 

One of the other core shifts in expectation will be around simplicity. The current solutions are just too complex. We can’t skimp on security, connectivity and collaboration, yet the interface needs to be made simpler, not ever more visibly complex. Attention engineering techniques that I’ve been talking about for about a decade will become more prevalent, since they will address the scarcity of this scarce resource. This expectation will be fueled by the IoT, big data, computing and new display technologies. We’ll see this talked about more explicitly in 2013.

 

The expectation will be that there is more opportunity than ever in 2013. There will be new hardware capabilities announced that will store and compute more with less impact on the ecology around us. The inherent capabilities of the world around us will increase as well so that we’ll collaborate or even negotiate more with our devices as well as the people around us. The concept of human augmentation of automation will be significantly less foreign at the end of 2013 than it is today.

 

Last year, I made some predictions about the shift in organizations applications portfolio assessments and the adoption of enterprise stores, I was probably a year premature on that one, so 2013 will likely be the year when these long term issues come home to roost. Organizations need to prune their tree of applications, if they expect new capabilities and innovation to bloom. There is just not enough budget to innovate and also feed the drain from low value solutions, just because we’ve supported them for so long. Enterprises also still have the issue that most of the apps in production can’t really unleash the power of the cloud. 2013 should see new tools and techniques to address this potential.

 

That is where the issue of scarcity and abundance becomes so important in 2013. We need to maximize the use of what’s abundant to maximize the value of what’s scarce – do even more with more. Organizations need to start to look for, measure and actively address these resource consumption issues.

 

Some of the top trends of 2012 moving into 2013:

One area where I believe expectations will shift tremendously in 2013 is in a new understanding of personalization. Using the contextual information available from big data and the need for attention engineering, individuals and corporations will have greater expectation on how information is delivered to them. Although 2013 may be too soon, there will also be a shift in how products are personalized as 3D printing moves out of limited use and becomes significantly more mainstream with some parts of the world having 3D printing capabilities as a local service. 3D printing helps address the fact that the cost of transportation is going to have an increased impact on who, makes what where. This may be even further out, but the concept of personalized medicine, tuned to an individual’s genetic makeup will be in the news much more in 2013. All of these things are variations of a shift in understanding and expectation of what personalization will really mean.

 

Although nothing ever really goes away in IT, there will be some areas that IT organizations will see reduced demand. One will be the bare metal OS. It is almost gone on servers and I fully expect that in 2013 you’ll see it head for the exit on phones and other non-dedicated mobile devices. Virtualization just makes too much sense at so many levels. IPV4 is another technology whose time is waning. Sure it will be around for a very long time – forever! But the excuses to not implement IPV6 may have run their course and now is the time.

 

I’ve mentioned before that the CIO’s role is changing and there are some CIO activities that likely need to be dropped. For the personnel in the organization, there needs to be a realization that automation is the new off-shore – embrace it and internalize what it may mean to your career.

 

One last area I almost forgot was the battle over Internet censorship and control which we’ve just started to hear more about in the last few months will reach new heights in 2013. Both governments and activists will be flexing their muscles and putting a strain on the open Internet that so much of our work is based upon. Keep an eye on this issue, since we all have a great deal riding on it.

 

As I ended my post for 2012 -- those who can have the vision, will be in for quite a ride this year.

 

By the way we’re going to have a twitter chat on 2013 Technology resolutions - December 12, 2012 noon US central. Use tag #HPESchat. Share what you see in store for 2013.

The first IPv6 Day is behind us

I was traveling this week so I didn’t get a post out yet about how Global IPv6 Day passed and we’re all still here. This post will have to make up for that delay. There were a few IPv6 problems reported but not too bad for the significance of the change. The general concensous was that 99.9% of the people saw nothing different on the day -- although if you look at the numbers, IPv6 traffic was still just a small fraction of the travel moving over the Internet that day

 

One of the people I work with on HP’s internal Global Technical Conference (Yanick Pouffary)  was at HP Discover presenting on the migration to IPv6. She had a blog post before IPv6 day and a video on the day:

 

Global IPv6 day reminds me a bit of the Y2K bug. There were some IPv6 problems and things learned but nothing too terrible.  After the turn of the centuery, some of the press stated that the problem was blown out of proportion, but that was never the perspective of those who had to get hip deep into the old code to make sure it would work. Somehow all the work done ahead of time by those who would likely be affected to alleviate the problem was forgotten -- except to complain about the expense.

 

HP participated in Global IPv6 day and the site will remain up.

HPIPv6.jpg

Tags: IPv6| Networking
Labels: IPv6| networking

IPv6 looms ever closer

IPv6-badge-blue-128-trans.pngBack in January I mentioned that IPV6 day was coming up on June 8th 2011, now that is less than a month away You can even run an IPv6 connectivity test today, although the about of IPv6 traffic remains miniscule.

 

Recently, another HP bloggers (Craig Smith) put out a post Subnet security for IPv6 networks – doing it right, that tries to address some of the confusion that may exist about IPv6 and security. This is a new technology that has some rules of its own that can be well worth understanding.

 

HP put out a few other resources as well:

At the upcoming HP Discover conference there will be some presentations on IPv6 as well.

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About the Author(s)
  • Steve Simske is an HP Fellow and Director in the Printing and Content Delivery Lab in Hewlett-Packard Labs, and is the Director and Chief Technologist for the HP Labs Security Printing and Imaging program.
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