The Next Big Thing
Posts about next generation technologies and their effect on business.

Will we need to update Moore’s law with the coming innovations...?

memory.jpgI was in an exchange with someone this week where we were talking about technology advances and some of the exponential ‘laws’ of IT. One of those is Moore’s law of transistor density. It is definitely useful, but maybe transistor density no longer has the meaning or breadth of relevance it used to?

 

For storage, it can take many transistors to store a one or a zero. But with Memristor or some of the other technologies that will someday compete with today’s memory circuits, they will not use transistors. Will we need to move to the density of 'holding either a zero or a one' instead?

 

Storage is just the start of the shift in computing circuits that are likely.

IoT and IT’s ability to foresee unintended consequences

Internet of things.pngI was recently talking with someone about an Internet of Things study that is coming out and it really made me wonder. HP has been doing work in the IoT for decades and gets relatively little credit for the efforts. In fact where I started work back in the 80s was writing statistical analysis tools for plant floor (SCADA) data collection – essentially the high value, big data space of its time, back when a 1 MIPS minicomputer was a high $$ investment.

 

The issues we deal with today are a far cry from that era, now we’re as likely to analysis data in the field about well head performance or robotics but many of the fundamentals remain the same. I’ve mentioned the issue of passive oversharing in the past, and addressing that issue needs to be at the foundation of today’s IoT efforts as well as value optimization issues.

 

I was in a discussion about vehicle to vehicle communications requirements a few months back and the whole issue of privacy looms much larger than the first thoughts of preventing accidents. I think everyone would agree that putting on the breaks by those vehicles affected is a good idea. Should the stop lights recognize bad behavior and visually send a signal to other drivers? There are a wide range of innovations possible with a network like this.

 

There are also negative possibilities to be considered:

  • Is passing along this driver performance to the police a good idea? What about insurance companies?
  • What about just that fact that your car knows it is speeding, is that something that others should know?
  • Or the information about where you’re driving to, now that your car is sharing this information with other cars and infrastructure (cell phones already do this by the way).
  • What if a driver can ‘socially engineer’ the limits of the system to maximize the performance for them. An example of this might be if you were to push the system so that yellow lights would stay yellow a bit longer because you’re accelerating into the intersection – is that OK?

Some unintended consciences are going to happen. We should be able to see many of them coming, if we think creatively. IT organizations will need to develop their implication assessment skills, for their social as well as business effects. The IT team should have better comprehension of the analysis and data sharing that has happened elsewhere and the implications, regardless of the business or industry and be able to advise accordingly. They need to reach out early and often.

Disrupting the innovator’s dilemma

innovation.jpgIf you haven’t seen it, Jill Lepore, the Chair of Harvard’s History and Literature Program wrote an article that was published in The New Yorker. She disrupted just about everything her fellow Harvard colleague, Clayton Christensen wrote about disruptive innovation. I’ve referenced Christensen’s work many times on this blog before.

 

There is also an article in Paymnts.com titled: To Disrupt or not to Disrupt: Is that Really the Question? that digs into the viewing innovation as well. As well as Clayton’s response in BusinessWeek.

 

If you are interested in innovation and disruption this alternative read is likely worth the effort, just for its diversity of perspective.

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Start small but think big, when transforming

StartSmallThinkBig.jpgYesterday, I posted about how we’re half-way through the current stage of IT and mentioned how IT needs to change. Today, I saw an interesting post from McKinsey & Company that has some similar views: Reinventing IT to support digitization.

 

They have identified seven elements critical to IT performance improvement:

1)      Clear, central business leadership on digital

2)      Elite IT talent

3)      Sourcing arrangements to scale the workforce rapidly

4)      Agile development and rapid releases

5)      Rapid innovation architecture supported by stable services

6)      Scalable cloud-based infrastructure

7)      High-quality integrated data

 

I agree with all those points, although I’d have dropped off the ‘on digital’ from the first point. I think all too often we continue to unnecessarily isolate the information technology goals and efforts from the business.

 

The article went on to describe a two-speed approach to transformation. This is one area that is as much about risk control as providing new capabilities. Start small but think big – is probably the rule. We can’t change everything at once and when making this kind of change, you need to develop experience.

This was driven home to me the other day when I was talking with my son (who teaches on-line). He was looking for a way to contact his students in a flexible, yet automated fashion. I said “Oh, no problem. I’ll just write an app for your phone.” I’ve written apps for a number of different mobile platforms over the years, so I thought it would be easy. I laid out a storyboard of the various screens. I bounced requirements off him. I knew exactly what I wanted to do, to make it look professional.

 

I dug into coding the first prototype. It seemed everywhere I turned, the Android environment didn’t want to support me in my efforts. It just didn’t have the fundamentals in the OS that I needed (or maybe the way I wanted them). So, I started to break the application down into various components that I could understand, validate and execute. Eventually, I will stitch them all together into a final application, but my first goal now is to get something dumb and functional that he can play with – without all the bells and whistles that were in the early design. A page out of any Agile Development handbook.

 

The same approach is needed as an organization starts to tackle its larger business support role and reinvention of its application portfolio.

Data Center Futures - a look back and a look ahead

Computing factory.pngEarlier this month Baseline magazine came out with a set of Predictions on the 2025 Data Center.  It made me reflect on how data centers changed in the last 10 years.

 

It was about 10 years ago that I wrote a Data Center of the Future speech for the rededication for one of EDS’ (now HP’s) data center complexes.

 

One thing I found interesting in the speech is that the computer in my house is still running at 3.4GHz (even though I’ve replaced it twice since then), but data storage on the device has gone up significantly. The speech also talked about the advent of cloud computing and the kinds of automation that are common today, as well as big data applications and a hint about the Internet of Things. In fact I didn’t see anything in the speech that was totally off base with the issues of today.

 

This new analysis from Baseline is dominated by energy production and consumption. This energy infrastructure dominating the computing capabilities is an interesting shift on where data center innovation will be focused in the future – assuming they are right. That’s why HP has been focused on Moonshot as an alternative compute delivery platform. Energy consumption of data centers is a problem that is not going to go away without some significant innovation.

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About the Author(s)
  • Steve Simske is an HP Fellow and Director in the Printing and Content Delivery Lab in Hewlett-Packard Labs, and is the Director and Chief Technologist for the HP Labs Security Printing and Imaging program.
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