Megatrends, decision evaluation and the future we want
In the process, a number of meta-drivers fell out that may shape the megatrends. Yes, this is turning into a convoluted network of interactions and that is why some models to assess these interactions are so important. These categories for these meta-drivers seemed to be:
- Engagement – this is what drives social, concepts like flow and maybe even the Internet of Things
- Simplicity – addressing the limitations of our ability to consume
- Efficiency – this embraces the concept of abundance and scarcity
- Flexibility – the need to adjust quickly (probably the sustained driving factor for cloud techniques)
- Security – we all know about this, if you don’t feel safe almost nothing else matters
- Visibility – the need for contextual understanding in order to act (one of the reasons for the current focus on Big Data)
Are these too simple? What have I left out?? It surprised me how old some of the links I identified were to link to this post.
It seems like many of our decisions could use an indicator showing how they increase or decrease these categories. We could use this as part of defining our expectations.
How many times do we make decisions that increase security but radically decrease flexibility or visibility, for example? You hear that discussion about our personal as well as our business lives today.
Trends and innovations that will shift the workplace of the future (2nd in a series)
Who is required for effective knowledge sharing activities… and other lessons learned
The nice thing about going to a conference outside your normal area of concentration is that it allows you to look at things differently. One thing that caught me a bit by surprise at the conference was the degree of overlap with the concepts presented in the New Horizons’ keynote titled "Big Bets in USAF Research and Development" by Maj General William Neil McCasland, Commander, Air Force Research.
Much of his presentation was about the impact autonomous and semi-autonomous systems were having on the military and the shifts that need to take place in both the implementation, validation and testing of these systems, as well as the processes that surround them. Granted he was coming at the problem from a different perspective and was focused much more on the automation side than the interaction between the humans and automation, but he touched on many of the same points as my brief presentation.
These overlaps drove home the “perfect storm” that is taking place in automation, regardless of the industry. Many people realize that the tools are out there and have different perspective of what the tools can do. These differences are actually what innovators need to look out for, since in many cases they can complement an approach. Even when they are not complimentary, the lessons learned may still be applicable.
The panel I was part of at the conference was moderated by Rupak Biswas, NASA Advanced Supercomputing division chief. After our panel, we had a long discussion about the shifting role and capabilities of automation, behavior modification and the role of IT organizations within organizations.
One of the areas we discussed was the use and deployment of gamification within an organization, specifically related to knowledge management and sharing of expertise. Although the IT organization definitely needs to be involved in the integration of information and its flow related to knowledge management and collaboration tools, the business side needs to be responsible for the goals, metrics, rewards and behavior changes that are required. They are the ones who will judge success of the project.
Collaboration between these two groups will be required, since neither can accomplish the task effectively on their own. This may seem obvious, but since some organizations view the IT team as a more cost conscious, support organization and that core business process tasks need to be funded and attacked separately from the IT efforts, this isolationist view may be a luxury that is too expensive to maintain.
2013 predictions - a year of expectation
If 2011 was the year of transformation and 2012 was the year of disruption, I believe that 2013 will be a year of expectation – changing expectations in IT. A year when many of these trends I’ve posted about really hit home. I’ll use the links in this post to provide the background context for these predictions.
Security is shifting with more threats from more sources and the realization that everyone gets hacked. Organizations will have a higher expectations of security based on what everyone has experienced and learned.
The industry has been talking about mobile devices, sensors and using networks to pull data from the edge and so now they’ll look to do something with all this data.
The market has talked about having software defined networks to make communications as virtualized and flexible as the computing infrastructure, now this versatility will become an expectation.
As organizations inch their way out of this incessant economic downturn, they will need new techniques that give greater insight on performance and satisfaction. This means that IT organizations will need to expand their definition of “customer” to include suppliers, partners, consumers and anything/one that can make a difference. 2013 will be a year where the constraints of the past need to be broken and organizations will be expected to look beyond whatever hinders innovation and the generation of greater value.
We can expect to see bigger data and even bigger storage, with copious amounts of information coming from more sensors in more places. Organizations will no longer be satisfied with using only 3-5% of the data available. Beyond being more of it, the information collected will be of a wider variety (including video, sound…) so transforming the information from one format to another and back will be increasingly important. I think more importantly – there will be a greater understanding and expectations of the value of the metadata – who is sending what to whom, when and what is the driving intent. After all, people do not really make decisions based on the data, they make decisions based on the context the data describes. The expertise for those that understand both the information and how it can be applied to the business goals of the day will be in highest demand. The whole concept of ‘In Memory’ computing will be up for a shift in expectations for where and how it is used – although that one might need to wait for 2014.
We’ll also see these devices in the field used for more functions – like the wide spread acceptance of new and improved NFC capabilities for payment and identity. The Internet of Things (IoT) will become just the Internet. Individuals will be able to add IoT capabilities independent of the original manufacturer, if desired. Although enterprises may still be crawling their way to the IoT, consumers will embrace IoT in 2013.
I also fully expect a couple of different disruptive display technologies in 2013 to shift our thinking about where and when a display is needed (or even possible).
One of the other core shifts in expectation will be around simplicity. The current solutions are just too complex. We can’t skimp on security, connectivity and collaboration, yet the interface needs to be made simpler, not ever more visibly complex. Attention engineering techniques that I’ve been talking about for about a decade will become more prevalent, since they will address the scarcity of this scarce resource. This expectation will be fueled by the IoT, big data, computing and new display technologies. We’ll see this talked about more explicitly in 2013.
The expectation will be that there is more opportunity than ever in 2013. There will be new hardware capabilities announced that will store and compute more with less impact on the ecology around us. The inherent capabilities of the world around us will increase as well so that we’ll collaborate or even negotiate more with our devices as well as the people around us. The concept of human augmentation of automation will be significantly less foreign at the end of 2013 than it is today.
Last year, I made some predictions about the shift in organizations applications portfolio assessments and the adoption of enterprise stores, I was probably a year premature on that one, so 2013 will likely be the year when these long term issues come home to roost. Organizations need to prune their tree of applications, if they expect new capabilities and innovation to bloom. There is just not enough budget to innovate and also feed the drain from low value solutions, just because we’ve supported them for so long. Enterprises also still have the issue that most of the apps in production can’t really unleash the power of the cloud. 2013 should see new tools and techniques to address this potential.
That is where the issue of scarcity and abundance becomes so important in 2013. We need to maximize the use of what’s abundant to maximize the value of what’s scarce – do even more with more. Organizations need to start to look for, measure and actively address these resource consumption issues.
Some of the top trends of 2012 moving into 2013:
- Cloud – Cloud is almost an expectation already, although I think there will be a shift to a greater industry specific expectation out of cloud service providers. The days of the generic, industry independent solution where the service provider doesn’t care how or what’s consumed may be over. PaaS will move into an industry specific space. The expectations for the service provider to have greater skin (read as IP) in the game will be an expectation. I also see the automation techniques learned from the IT process automation we call ‘cloud’, starting to expand out into other business processes that need this level of automation and attention engineering.
- Mobility – will move beyond smart phones into other experience access points. I fully expect that this means IT will begin to see ways to virtualize the mobile experience in new, secure and innovative ways. It’s about the access to the corporate information, not about the device and when it is about devices, it is about the personal cloud of devices, not just one.
- Big Data – for me this was the big buzz word of 2012. The concerns will move beyond the raw data and focus will turn to the metadata, mentioned above. As mentioned earlier - context is king. The skills within the organization will be a tremendous constraint and the diversity of skills will extend as well. Gamification, as an example, is a skill that will be recognized and move hand-in-hand with a big data strategy.
One area where I believe expectations will shift tremendously in 2013 is in a new understanding of personalization. Using the contextual information available from big data and the need for attention engineering, individuals and corporations will have greater expectation on how information is delivered to them. Although 2013 may be too soon, there will also be a shift in how products are personalized as 3D printing moves out of limited use and becomes significantly more mainstream with some parts of the world having 3D printing capabilities as a local service. 3D printing helps address the fact that the cost of transportation is going to have an increased impact on who, makes what where. This may be even further out, but the concept of personalized medicine, tuned to an individual’s genetic makeup will be in the news much more in 2013. All of these things are variations of a shift in understanding and expectation of what personalization will really mean.
Although nothing ever really goes away in IT, there will be some areas that IT organizations will see reduced demand. One will be the bare metal OS. It is almost gone on servers and I fully expect that in 2013 you’ll see it head for the exit on phones and other non-dedicated mobile devices. Virtualization just makes too much sense at so many levels. IPV4 is another technology whose time is waning. Sure it will be around for a very long time – forever! But the excuses to not implement IPV6 may have run their course and now is the time.
I’ve mentioned before that the CIO’s role is changing and there are some CIO activities that likely need to be dropped. For the personnel in the organization, there needs to be a realization that automation is the new off-shore – embrace it and internalize what it may mean to your career.
One last area I almost forgot was the battle over Internet censorship and control which we’ve just started to hear more about in the last few months will reach new heights in 2013. Both governments and activists will be flexing their muscles and putting a strain on the open Internet that so much of our work is based upon. Keep an eye on this issue, since we all have a great deal riding on it.
As I ended my post for 2012 -- those who can have the vision, will be in for quite a ride this year.
By the way we’re going to have a twitter chat on 2013 Technology resolutions - December 12, 2012 noon US central. Use tag #HPESchat. Share what you see in store for 2013.
